Re-Rate

Since it's swing low on 10 July, TFG has been one of the strongest name within the SA Inc group, surging from a low of 52.81 to it's recent highs of 107.06. Was the move justified? It may have been, as market participants gave management it's due for navigating the 2020 crisis and while also producing results that was better than the market had expected. Although we have seen the stock trade at it's best levels since March, the weakness in the Rand over the last 2 days has started to out some pressure on local stocks. TFG , which operates in the discretionary retail space, may not be immune to any local economic weakness. For one, SA is in the midst of a hard lock-down until 15 January and not only will there be uncertainty with regards to the arrival of the vaccines, we note some European regions going into hard lock-downs (UK where TFG has operations), while Germany extends the lock-down as it daily death toll mounts. As mentioned, TFG operates in the discretionary re...

"As we head into the festive season I’d like to send a shout out to our Investment Strategist Lester Davids who I brought onto the team nearly 6+ months ago. He was worked above and beyond to put out the highest quality of charting and analysis out there, we can all agree at some juncture we have seen one of his calls and traded it PA. Lester is contacted daily by Bloomberg and Reuters for comment and thus all our clients should feel rest assured we have one of the best Sales Teams in SA at present with our winning trade calls  locally and abroad hitting nearly 70% success rate. Well Done Lester." - Ex-Institutional Trader for a R130bn Boutique Asset Manager and a later a co-head of a CPT based Hedge Fund . (21 December 2021). Hi Lester, I trust you're doing well. I just wanted to commend you for all your analysis you keep putting out. You don't get enough recognition at all and it is just brilliant! Thanks for all the hard work - Sales Trader at IG SA ( 04...

SPY - 50-minutes into the session. 'Dark cloud cover' - for now can't hold the prior day's highs. Must watch the 8-day & pivot at $371.39.      

Good Day All,  This week's research note is shorter than usual. For a sample of my standard weekly reports, please click on the following link to view the standard coverage: https://re-rate.blogspot.com/2021/01/research-coverage-samples-of-research.html  Full sample reports will be uploaded to this blog in the next few days. Please note, this is not a comprehensive view of potential market opportunities on my watch-list. All Charts and Data as at the close of Thursday 31 December 2020.   All Country World Equity Index (ACWI, $90.72) | As we kick off 2021, global equities trade at all-time highs, having made one of the strongest trough-to-peak recoveries in recent years, rising by 70% off the March 2020 pandemic lows to the last trading day of 2020. At current levels, the index exhibits a strong candle structure, with a +3.88% gain over 1 month, which followed an 11.76% gain for November 2020. While the primary trend is up and strong, traders and investors shoul...

  Lester Davids

DXY US Dollar Index 90.67   Technical Perspective - I believe this is the most important chart in the world right now. US Dollar Index (DXY) 90.67 - The technical setup reminiscent of the period 1981/1982 & 1998/1999 where multi-month weakness within an upward channel was followed by a sharp reversal & squeeze.  As I mentioned in my weekly note: caution if you're too short the USD.  Treasury Chief-elect J Yellen being pressed to back a strong US Dollar.  Monthly Chart

ALSO: Read about my Sappi Calls: https://re-rate.blogspot.com/2021/01/sappi-long-and-short-of-it.html Updated with last prices as at 24 December 2020.   The following is a review of the 2020 trade ideas that I have suggested. These were generated in my employment at two South African-based stockbroking firms as well as in the social media sphere where I occasionally share my technical perspective with market participants such as (private) proprietary traders, institutional traders and analysts and portfolio managers.     Trading Desk Analyst (Responsible for 80% of private client research. July 2016 to June 2020).  Investment Strategist (Headhunted to start and take full responsibility for the  private client  research. These include quarterly reports with the 'best ideas' for the period. July to December 2020).   The ones highlighted below stood out the most, on both the long and short side.   This is not a comprehensive vi...