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Using Technical Analysis As A Risk Management Tool: 4 Examples

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I happened to be online last week, following some of my global peers and again noticed something that has been a recurring feature: even the most experienced and well-respected technical analysts still have a tough time in selling the discipline as a viable tool in financial markets. Yes, there are are myriad of ways to make money in the market, which includes Fundamental, Quantitative, Quantamental and many more but when it comes to technical analysis there is often a great deal of doubt that the outcome is less reliable than most other forms of analysis. Peter Brandt, who has been in the business for 45 years is one of the gentlemen who has been successful but is still doubted, while J.C Parets, who services hedge funds and other institutions ofetn describes how thought of as 'voodoo' by the rest of the market. One of my acquaintances who previously traded at a large boutique asset manager and now works as a hedge fund manager, describe to me how Technical Analysis is con...
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Hits & Misses 2018

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How does an individual who earns his or her living from financial services and/or the financial markets maintain complete humility when they feel they have done well or out-performed? When a plumber, doctor, dentist or IT professional expresses that he or she has the ability to do a good job the reaction expressed is somewhat different than the sometimes "who-does-he-or-she-think-he-is?" reaction a financial services professional receives.  It's on that note I start this brief piece called "Hits & Misses 2018" - an attempt to highlight ( through the calls made ) how my think and analysis has developed, why I believe 2018 was a very good year, as well as where I failed. If you are reading this we most likely follow each other on Twitter or are connected on Linkedin or you may have otherwise come across my post online. The ideas highlighted form part of my roll as an researcher/analyst at a Johannesburg-based retail stockbroker where I am responsible f...
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Flash Note: Sappi Ltd, Long Term Sell?

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Sappi - having a look at the monthly/long term chart. Some readers may recall I had a note in Feb 2017 warning on "Sappi's Share Slowdown". At the time SAP was trading at R84.75 since then has traded in a range of between R78 and R104. While the early to mid R70s appear to be a "comfortable long", this is what I see on the Monthly Chart:  - Upward trend line going back to August 2013 has been breached. See the prior trend line breaks has provided great long term entry/exit signals.   - Has formed a medium term triple top (May 2017, Dec 2017 and September 2018).  - A key level is R85.25 - a level that, over the long term, the share has struggled to hold onto for extended periods of time. This goes back to 2001. - RSI appears vulnerable on support going back to the March 2009 incline support.  - Accumulation/Distribution Indicator is losing long term momentum, possibly reflecting buying fatigue and selling pressure.   Bottom Line : Is Sa...
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