Flash Note: Still Elevated - Potential Targets For Tiger Brands

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While I have had numerous failed calls (You know I have posted about those before), Tiger Brands has to be one of the highlights of my year. I originally recommended this as a short/sell In February 2018 when it traded around R455. The idea was a combination of technical vulnerability and fundamental overvaluation as the business traded in a tough consumer environment. Not to mention a management team that has not lived up to expectations.   

Taking a longer term view, I remain somewhat uncomfortable with the technical setup on the share. It trades about R30 above the next major support (R235) - a level if which fails to hold could open up an average of R185 on the share.


Year-to-date we have broken two significant trend lines: (1) the one that goes back to April 2003 and (2) the one that goes back to February 2014 and while the 20-year trend line is yet to have been breached, it's RSI already in bear territory.


There is an alternative: a possibility that the price finds strong support (and forms a "right shoulder" at R235 as the market highlights it's valuation (scenario on chart). At that level the share will trade at a 11.8x multiple.

For a "branded"/consumer goods company the valuation may be "attractive" - but management have not been good capital allocators while new management is yet to prove themselves.



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