Re-Rate

Summary: Medium term bullish signals emerging but be mindful of short term technical barriers.  Analysis Type: Equity Portfolio Time Frame: Medium Term Last Close: 12723c (could pull back to 11800c) Stop-loss: 10500c Within my technical toolbox, the Relative Strength Index has been a primary tool in analyzing charts over the last number of years. Used in various ways, the indicator has been useful in identifying momentum as well as forewarning about changes in trends well before it is visible in the price. Currently, a review of food retailer Shoprite reveals a potential change in medium term trend, driven by: 1. Bullish Divergence - recently we saw the price make a lower low while the RSI made a higher low, refuting the temporary weakness. 2. Key Support - the 125 level has been a key accumulation level over the last number of years, with evidence of strong buying activity in January 2012, October 2014, December 2015, January 2016 and September 2019. Currentl...

The following is a re-post from my research group: Key Points: Identified Long Term Technical Risk (@ R433) While Fundamentals Were Sound  Avoided Multi-Year Decline Oil Price War – Failed To Recognize New Leg Lower Just over three weeks ago in a note titled, ‘5 Shares To Add To A Long Term Equity Portfolio’, with the oil major was included as one of the shares to be added to a diversified portfolio. While I have managed to avoid the share over the last number of years, the most recent anticipation that the price had the potential reverse it’s downward trend has proved me wrong, but before we take a look at the final leg lower, let’s start from the beginning. Over the last number of years (on the way up), Sasol has been a stock that I have managed to steer clear of, mainly because at the time and because of my inexperience and because I felt that the stock and it’s potential price movement were too complex to understand. As time progressed an...

Recently I received a request into my call history therefore I decided to document my biggest hits and misses over the last few years.  They reflect my perspective at the time, as well as the updated charts. All ideas are largely based on a technical view. __________________________________________________________________________________ Brent Crude technicals were warning us 17 months ago. Published an idea 4-Oct-2018 @ $84 titled ‘Is Brent Crude Cracking?’ The current (2020) carnage in oil is not something I expected (I expected some sort of reversal higher) however looking back the sell @ $84 on 04 October 2018 was a good one and taught the lesson that trends persist longer that one expects. Current chart: Brent Crude Oil (as at 05 April 2020 - Monthly Chart. $35 to be monitored. Dec-2008 & Jan 2016 the level acted as support. Now, as was case in Oct-1990 & Sept-2000, it's serving as a distribution zone. JSE Top 40: 2...

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) With the global Covid-19 pandemic having disrupted nearly everything in sight, including the regular commute to an office environment, many company employees have been forced to make use of digital communication tools, in either the form of e-mail, instant messaging (for e.g. WhatApp) or via video communication such as Skype or Zoom Video. While WhatApps is an indirect holding via Facebook and Skype via Microsoft, Zoom is a pure-play on Video Communications. Back on 09 January, clients of the Unum Capital Trading Desk were alerted to a potential technical buy/long trade idea on ZM at a price of  $72.55 with an entry close to $70. Since then we have seen the price of ZM benefit from the market's realisation that the company's services were in high demand. Over the course of nearly three months, the price tested a high of $164.94, completely exceeding expectations. Most recently we have seen a moderation in price with a retraceme...